Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) recent controversial remarks on Medicaid are threatening to become a political liability for the incumbent as she faces reelection next year.
Ernst drew the ire of Democrats when she responded to concerns about potential Medicaid cuts by saying “we all are going to die.” Despite the swift backlash, Ernst doubled down on the remarks in a sarcastic video posted Saturday on social media in which she appeared to be recording from a cemetery.
While the second-term senator has been a formidable candidate and will benefit from the conservative lean of her state, some Republicans acknowledge the comments could follow her into the midterms.
“It is very, very early, but there is no question that that comment from Sen. Ernst will be on Iowa airwaves for the better part of the next 15 months,” said one Iowa Republican strategist.
The election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday shifted Ernst’s race slightly toward Democrats — from safe to likely Republican — citing her recent comments and a new challenge from Democratic state Rep. JD Scholten, who said the senator’s remarks spurred him to jump in.
Another GOP strategist acknowledged the risk posed by Ernst’s comments but added the political climate next year is going to ultimately have a greater impact on the race.
“It probably wasn’t helpful, and the cleanup wasn’t helpful,” the strategist said. “But the race, presuming it’s these two candidates on the ballot, isn’t going to be decided by Sen. Ernst’s comments in 2025. It’s going to be more influenced on where the country’s at.”
Ernst had pushed back against constituents who shouted at the Butler, Iowa, town hall event that cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) would cause people to die.
“Well, we all are going to die,” the senator responded, as she defended a House-passed budget reconciliation package that proposes cuts to Medicaid and SNAP funding.
The exchange drew sharp backlash from Democrats. The party’s Senate campaign arm called Ernst’s remarks “stunningly callous,” and Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chair Ken Martin accused her, President Trump and the GOP of being “hellbent on putting their own constituents at risk.”
Scholten jumped into the race Monday following the backlash to her remarks.
“I wasn’t planning on doing this right now, but I just can’t sit on the sidelines after Joni’s recent town hall justifying gutting Medicaid because ‘we’re all going to die,’” he said in his video launch.
He enters the race alongside Democrat Nathan Sage, who said Ernst “has stepped in it.” State Sen. Zach Wahls, another potential candidate, said “we desperately need a new voice for Iowa in the US Senate.”
Ernst also faces three long shot primary challengers on the right.
Democrats argue that the comments will play poorly with much of Iowa’s aging and rural population, which depend on programs like Medicaid.
But Ernst doubled down on the comments in her sarcastic apology video, saying, “I made an incorrect assumption that everyone in the auditorium understood that, yes, we are all going to perish from this Earth.”
Even some conservatives took issue with her response.
“I wouldn’t have posted the follow-up video,” said CNN commentator Scott Jennings. “In fact, the answer she gave in the town hall, the first 98 percent of it was correct. She was talking about taking illegal immigrants off of Medicaid.”
”I wouldn‘t have posted the follow-up video myself, but I think the Republicans can actually win this debate,” he added.
Last week’s events would not be the first time a political candidate in the state has faced backlash for off-the-cuff remarks caught on camera. In fact, when Ernst first ran for Senate in 2014, her opponent, former Rep. Bruce Braley (D-Iowa), faced backlash when he was caught on camera at a fundraiser referring to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) as “a farmer from Iowa who never went to law school.”
“Those things can be harmful,” said the unnamed GOP strategist. “It won’t decide the race, but on the periphery and on the edges, sure, it could have a long-term impact.”
Still, Republicans are largely brushing off the criticism, arguing Ernst’s comments were taken out of context.
“Anyone who knows Joni — especially the folks who heard her answer tough questions for over an hour — knows Dems and the mainstream media are purposefully replacing her core message because it helps their fearmongering,” said Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann. “But the fact is, without Sen. Ernst taking a strong stand to protect the integrity of programs like Medicaid, Iowans would be worse off.”
Democrats, on the other hand, are leaning into the senator’s comments because “there’s been nothing for them to really lean into” before this point, argued Iowa Republican consultant Luke Martz. “This isn’t going to win the election for them. It’s just giving them something to talk about.”
Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, also acknowledged Ernst doubling down was “probably not a good idea” but forecasted voters will forget about the incident on the long road to the 2026 midterms.
“Ernst’s comments give Scholten some opportunity to jump into the race, get some headlines. … I don’t think it’s a big enough deal that it’s going to have legs, so to speak,” Hagle said.
But Iowa State University political science professor Dave Peterson predicted that, while Republicans will try to ignore the incident and “hope it goes away,” Democrats are likely to make sure it dogs her.
“This just seems like something that might not go away, something that might sort of linger with her,” Peterson said.
Of course, Ernst — who has not yet formally launched a reelection bid — would enter 2026 as the favorite, despite the backlash and her new challengers.
It’s been more than a decade since a Democrat represented Iowa in the upper chamber. Ernst won reelection by roughly 7 points back in 2020, and Trump won the state by 13 points in November.
“Joni Ernst is Iowa’s winner in Washington,” GOP strategist Michael Zona told The Hill in an email.
But the latest controversy, adding to scrutiny that mounted on Ernst earlier this year over her support for Trump’s Cabinet picks, could give Democrats leverage to make inroads in the midterms, Peterson said.
“It’s Ernst’s race to lose, and the last week has made that a little more likely,” he said.
The Iowa Republican strategist said the attention drawn onto Iowa this week “opens up the door to resources being put in,” and groups on both sides of the aisle will have to make calculations.
However, Democrats argue the state already presented an opportunity for them prior to Ernst’s comments, pointing to recent special election victories they say signal a shift in the political environment.
In January, Iowa Democrats flipped the state’s 35th Senate District, which Trump won by 21 points in November. In March, Democrats overperformed in the special election for the 100th House District.
“It’s still a high bar for Democrats trying to win statewide,” said Iowa Democratic strategist Jeff Link, but “video clips like this have a way of just hanging around.”
If Ernst runs next year, “we’re going to see this clip a ton, and that’s not good for her,” he said.
